6 events in Passaic County with a date

El Nino arrives, extreme weather risk rises

Shift could rival recorded historicist events since 1950

By: Doyle Rice
and Dinah Voyles Puler
USA Today

..... A long-anticipated and dramatic global climate shift has arrived, federal forecasters said June 11 [2026] as they confirmed the start of El Nino conditions.
..... The announcement also adds to mounting evidence suggesting this El Nino will be unusually strong, potentially supercharging droughts, heavy rainfall events and heat waves. Previous el Ninos have led to some of the hottest years on record, such as the record-breaking worldwide average temperature in 2024.
..... El Nino is part of a larger climate cycle driven by the temperature of water in parts of the Pacific Ocean. The natural climate pattern affects weather planet-wide, brining a mixed bag of conditions across the globe.
..... The new forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center sees a "very strong" El Nino. It may grow to rival the strongest El Nino events in history recorded to dating back to 1950, the climate center's Michelle L'Heureux said in an e-mail to USA today.
..... Meanwhile, not all El Nino effects are devastating. the pattern is also expected to reduce hurricane activity in the Atlantic and could bring a miler winter (and lower heating bills) to millions of Americans.
..... But world leaders have expensed concerned about the prospect of droughts, heavy rainfall events and heat waves.
..... The world must teat it as the urgent climate warning it ls . El Nino conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world," said United Nations Secretary-General Antonipo Guterres in a video statement earlier in June. [2026]
..... A strong event could create ripple effects for months to come, and the new forecast says a strong event is increasingly likely.
..... "In NOAA's latest update, we have a 63% chance of becoming 'very strong' in the upcoming winter," L'Heureux noted.
..... "There are 7 very strong events in our recorded, so this event has a decent chance of reaching that level," she said. "There is still some uncertainly, with a 1-in-3 chance of this not being a very strong El Nino."
..... While there's no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of el Nino events, the World Meteorological Organization noted it can amplify the effects.
..... Given that water temperatures in the tropical Pacific are already as much as 10 egress Fahrenheit above average, concern is rising at the United Nations that this El Nino could feed on that extra heat "and devastate vulnerable and unprepared communities worldwide."
..... When federal forecasters confirmed El Neno conditions June 11, [2026] they used data from satellites showing sustained changes in winds and water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
..... Those temperatures briefly skyrocketed in the el Nino region during the first week in June to reach record levels for this time of year. They've fallen slightly but remained above previous records on June 9, [2026] according to a visualization by the Climate Reanalyzer at the University of Maine's Climate Change Institute.
..... El Nino is a part of a climate cycle known by scientists as "El Nino - Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. but it was originally recognized by fishermen off the cost of South America in the 1600s, with the appearance of unusually warm was in the Pacific Ocean around Christmas. The name means "Little Boy" or "Christ Child" in Spanish.
..... When El Nino conditions aren't present, the cycle can be in neutral or La Nina phases.
..... "While this year's [2026] event started a bit later than the big El Ninos of 2015 and 1197, it;s beginning to catch up," Josh Willis, a sea level researcher at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, said in late May. [2026] "We'll see how big it gets."
..... Forecasters say it's too soon to know specifics of how it will affect the United States, and it will always be hard to determine El Nino's exact impact on weather. But the climate patten does have hallmark features that forecasters expect.
* Watch for hot weather: There is potential for a drier, warmer summer across the Northwest, Northern Plains, and the upper Midwest, prolonging ongoing drought in some areas and increasing wildfire risk, according to AcucWeather, Overall, El Nino increases the chances of above-average temperatures across the northern and western United States.
* Rain (finally) in the Southeast: El Ninos can lead to wet conditions along the Gulf Coast and Southeast, easing the ongoing drought in those areas, according to AccuWeather.
* California could face more rain and snow: California tends to see a much wetter year with El Nino, said Abby Frazier, a geography professor in the climate, environment and society school at Clark University. It's never a guarantee because every El Nino is different, Frazier said. "But often can expect conditions to be more favorable for things like atmospheric rivers that bring a lot of rain to Southern California." Heavier snowfalls are also possible in the California mountains, according to AccuWeather.
* Wildfire concerns in Hawaii: Hawaii may also see increased rainfall in the summer, then dry drought conditions in fall and winter, Frazier said. Particularly of concern is the greater risk of wildfire in Hawaii, she said. "If we get heavier rainfall in the summer, all of the greases and things that are fuel to fires grow prolifically, then dry out over the winter, so we typically see our fire season start earlier."
* Atlantic hurricane season could be less active: we can already see signs of EL Nino causing increases in upper level westerly winds across the tropical Atlantic, said Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach. Thees wind act to prevent tropical storms from forming.
* Pacific Hurricane season expected to be busy: El Nino tends to significantly increase activity in th eastern North Pacific, especially in the central and western parts of the basin, Klozbach said. Warner waters, increased low-level spin and reduced vertical wind shear all contribute to this increase.
..... All isn't necessarily doom and gloom, the climate center;s L'Heureux said. "Keep in mind that impacts related to El Nino are not necessary concerning."
..... "While it can inverse the chance of seeing more extreme weather across parts of the globe, there are positives such as potentially lower heating bills for the northern tier of the United States during the winter. the likely reduction of tripodal cyclone activity over the Atlantic basin is also potentially beneficial."

HOME