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Experts weigh in on tariffs hitting holiday shopping

By: Daniel Munoz
NorthJersey.com
USA Today Network - New Jersey

..... The days of a door-busting Black Friday marking the start of the holiday shopping season are long gone.
..... With tariffs and inflation on shoppers' minded, coupled with the convenience of Online sales, consumers are spending sooner this year [2025] - and they can expect to shell out more, according to a series of recent reports by companies that track retail trends.
..... Figures released October 6 [2025] by the platform Adobe Analytics showed that between November 1 and December 31, the American pubic is expected to spend $253.4 billion just for Online shopping about a 5% increase form 2024.
..... But that's not due to fatter wallets or a surplus of holiday cheer.
..... "Inflation pushes up prices, so it inflates the growth number as people have to pay more for what they need/want," said Neil Saunders, a retail analyst and managing director of GlobalDAta, a market intelligence and analytics company.
..... Professional-services firm KPMG said on September 29 [2025] that 81% of consumers in the Northeast expect price hikes for the holidays due to tariffs, and 66% of shoppers listed inflation as the main reason they planned to cut back on spending.
..... Despite Adobe's prediction of higher overall sales, individual consumer spending is expected to drop, said real estate service firm JLL. The Chicago-based company works with malls and other retail clients and recently surveyed 1.001 consumers Online.
..... Average, household holiday budgets will drop form $1,261 in 2024 to $1,133 this year, [2025] "marking a significant retreat from last year's [2024] more optimistic spending levels," the firm said, adding, "consumers are no longer willing to stretch their finances for holiday excess."
..... Higher-income households, those making more than $150,000 a year, planned to spend more for the holidays while those with incomes under $50,000 are pulling back "severely,: JLL said.
..... "This growing divide indicates a holiday season that's increasingly bifurcated: budget-conscious and constrained among lower earners, but indulgent and experience-focused at the top," the report found. "Affluent shoppers are expanding budgets across all categories (gifts, food & Decor, and experiences), essentially carrying overall holiday spending while other income groups pull back."
..... Holiday shopping is expected to rev up on October 7 and 8, [2025] amid Amazon Prime Day, Adobe analytics said. During those two days alone, shoppers are expected to spend an additional $9 billion, 6.2% more than last year. [2024]
..... A survey of 4,000 shoppers by consulting firm McKinesy, meanwhile, found that many were shopping earlier amid the uncertainly of President Donald Trump's tariffs, hoping to lock in deals before anticipated price increases.
..... Even before the trade levies, social media posts and news reports from Black Friday last ear [2024] depicted few deals and more empty big-box stores and malls.
..... That may be because retailers across North Jersey announced holiday shopping discounts weeks in advance.
..... The age of "door busters," when people come out to spend the moment Thanksgiving ends, isn't quite what it used to be, thanks to the prevalence of Online shopping, noted Scott Auster, head of leasing at Urban Edge Properties, in a 2023 interview. The company's portfolio includes Bergen Town Center in Paramus. [NJ]
..... Amazon, in fact, has already rolled out discounts and holiday deals for the upcoming season. And Cyber Monday, four days after Thanksgiving is experted to be 2025's busiest holiday shopping event. Adobe analytics said. Americans will spend $14.2 billion on that day alone, it predicted, based on an analysis of Online and in-person transactions handled by its software.

'Better deals' Online

..... In another example of the expanded shopping season, Halloween and back-to-school buying started in the early sumer this year, [2025] analysis reported. Most of the products sold in both categories are made in China, which Trump has targeted with on-again off-again
..... More than two-thirds of consumers said they were starting their school shopping earlier than usual, said the National Retail Federation, a trade group.
..... Prices for back-to-school supplies - from stationary to calculators and lunch boxes -rose 7.3% between 2024 and 2025, said an August report by The Century Foundation, a progressive think tank.
..... While some retailers like Target and Best Buy remain optimistic for the holidays, Walmart, Macy's and toymaker Mattel have lowered their expectations, Reuters reported on October 6. [2025]
..... "You have consumers dealing with a lot in the broader economy," said Vivek Pandya, director at Adobe Digital Insights. "we anticipated them taking advantage of these major sales moments., and we still see them leaning on the Online sector as an area to get better deals."

Pre-tariff stockpiles shrink

..... R3etialres report that they're burning through their pre-tariff inventory, which was stockpiled in the months after Trump's presidential victory last November. [2024]
..... So far, consumers have managed to escape much of the tariffs' impact because of raw materials and finished products brought in advance.
..... "As soon as the inventories run out, you have a disaster," predicted Michael Lewis, president of FOCO, a sports memorabilia store in Piscataway. [NJ]
..... Imports to the U.S. slowed down after summer surges, the National Retail Federation said in its Global Port Tracker report, a collaboration with consulting firm Hackett Associates."Retailers have stocked up as much as they can ahead of tariff increases, but the uncertainty of U.S. trade policy is making it impossible to make the long-term plans hat are critical to future business success," said Jonathan gold, NRF's vice president for supply chain and customers policy.

Seasonal hiring stalls

..... Meanwhile, seasonal hiring by retailers for the holiday shopping period is expected tog row at its slowest pace since the Great Recession in 2009, according to figures released last week [10/03/2025] Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a job search firm in New York City.
..... "Seasonal employers are facing a confluence of factors this year [2025] - tariffs loom, inflationary pressure linger, and many companies continue to rely on automation and permanent staff instead of large waves of seasonal hires," said Andrew Challenger, a senior vice president.
..... Corporate announcements about hing have been few and far between, the firm noted.
..... Target, for example, has not committed to a hiring spree, as it did in previous years, challenger, Gray & Christmas said in its September 23 [2025] report.
..... "The traditional seasonal spike in warehousing and shopping jobs is no longer as pronounced, and that shift could be permanent," the firm added.

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