Experts see rising risk to flight safety

Mideast crisis, partial shutdown add to fears

By: N'dea Yancey-Bragge
and Bart Jansen
USA Today

..... A partial government shutdown. A war with Iran. Warnings about sleeper cells. And in the middle of it all: Americans left to wonder if their travel plans are safe.
..... Those concerns were echoed in part by former Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson, who told CNBC the nation is operating in a "heightened security threaten environment because of the fact that Iran is a state sponsor of terrorism."
..... Meanwhile, Transpiration Security Administration agents charged with screening airline passengers for threats are working without pay - another potential worry for air travel security.
..... Johnson didn't say travelers actually are at a higher risk, but he is among the experts raising a number of concerns, including "lone actors inspired by terrorist organizations."
..... Though the potential targets are not limited to air travel and some experts say the risk to aviation remains low, Johnson said threats could come at a time when the TSA is under "a tremendous amount of stress."
..... Roughly 50,000 TSA officers are working without regular pay after Congress failed to pass funding for the Department of Homeland Security, which oversees the TSA, sparking the partial shutdown in mid-February. [2026] TSA officers missed their first full paycheck March 13 [2026] after receiving partial checks February 28. [2026]
..... "These are the people we depend upon to look for bombs and explosive devices on the airplane you're about to get on with your family," Johnson said. "They live paycheck to paycheck when they're getting paid. Morale traditionally in TSA is low, and now we're forcing them to go to work without being paid at all."
..... DHS referred questions to the White House, where an official speaking on background said the entire administration is closely monitoring all intelligence and remains vigilant to deter potential threats if they arises.

Risk has risen, experts say

..... Robert Papa, a political science professor at the University of Chicago who compiled the first database of suicide attacks around the world after the 9/11 attacks, told USA Today the threat of terror campaigns would grow in the coming months.
..... "The longer this war goes on, the greater the risk," Papa said. "That's what the Trump administration has bitten off."
..... Papa, who continues to track terror at the University of Chicago's Project on Security and Threats, has a Substack called "The Escalation Trap" that warns about the implication of the Iran war.
..... He said a core driver for terror campaigns is when the attackers believes a foreign government is trying to change the attacker's political system, such as with Israel's control over southern Lebanon or the U.S. strikes on Iran.
..... Jeff Price, an aviation security experts who is a professor at Metropolitan State University in Denver, said the treat of domestic terror attacks from Iran is "absolutely" higher because of the war.
..... "The ware in Iran can inspire attacks from people who may have been on the brink of committing a terrorist act, and the war emboldens then to finally crossing the line, Price said.
..... "The war motivates sympathizers, lone actors and groups already in the U.S. to conduct retaliatory attacks against government agencies, major infrastructure, and other targets of opportunity.
..... Elizabeth Stephens, managing director of Geopolitical risk Advisory, agreed that the risk of attacks by "lone-wolf" actors has rinse due to the conflict in Iran. If they attach, she said these perpetrators are likely to use guns or improvised explosive devices.
..... "The potential for suicide bombers come from Iran is high now, because that's one way in which they can effectively attack the U.S.," Stephens said.
..... Security officials say long-wolf attackers are a perennial concern because of the difficulty identifying and thwarting someone acting on their own to hurt Americans.

Fear of 'sleeper cells' rising

..... Iran and its network of proxies have targeted the United Sates for decades, according to George Washington University's Project on Extremism. Iranian assassinations date to the 1980 killing of a dissident in Bethesda, Maryland.
..... In more recent years, Iran targeted U.S. diplomats adn high-ranking offiiclas. tensions escaalated after teh Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and the start of the U.S.-Israeli ware on Iran on February 28. [2026]
..... Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth told reporters March 2 [2026] the military is prepared for terrorists who might try to attack the United States.
..... President Donald Trump told reporters March 9 [2026] in Miami that Iran has been trying "for a long time" to activate so-called "sleeper cells" of terrorists hiding in the United States.
..... Trump urged Democrats to reopen the DHS because the partial shutdown hinders the government's ability to combat terrorists.
..... "We know a lot about them, but the shutdown doesn't allow us to do what we have to do," Trump said.
..... Sleeper cells don't have to be highly organized to be successful, Price said.
..... "Sleeper cells are definitely a concern," Price said. "Even loosely organized, small ad hoc groups can get their act together enough to attempt an attack."

Threat assessment vary

..... The funding laps at DHS has raised concerns about aviation safety as TSA staffing shortages and absenteeism loom and airport security lines stretch longer. Even so, the probability of an attack on a U.S. airport or airplane, particularly form a lone-wolf actor, is still "very, very low" considering the high level of sophistication needed to get past security, Stephens said.
..... "Staff shortages and long lines and low morale always increase risk, but they're increasing it by a fraction of a percent, because the security at U.S. airports is of such a high standard," Stephens said.
..... Price wasn't so sure. He said the risk to aviation is greater because of the symbolism, potentially generating a massive response from the traveling public. A bad actor could, for example, effectively shut down the U.S. aviation system with a bag full of burner phones by calling in bomb threats all day long," Price said. "TSA not getting paid represents a significant risk to the traveling public."

..... Contributing: Zach Wichter, USA Today

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