For NJ GOP, it's either Trumpism, moderation
Internal clash long tme in coming, will get nasty
By: Charles Still
Political Stile
USA Today Network
..... President-elect Donald Trump memorably bragged early in his 2024 camping that he might win blue New Jersey.
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It didn't happen of course, but Trump's closer-than-expected loss to Vice President Kamala Harris by just 5 points - in a stat that he slot twice by double-digit margins - has clarified the stakes for the New Jersey GOP in the crowded and consequential 2025 governor's race now in full swing.
..... Will Garden State Republican rally around a more centrist, establishment nominee whew could appeal in the November [2024] election to suburban moderates, independents and disillusioned Democrats, much the same way as Tom Kean did in the 1980s, Christie Whitman in the 1990s and Christ Christie in the 2000s?
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Or will they select a pro-Trump enthusiast who can woo voters across the spectrum with a MAGA-themed message of economic strength, law and order and a return to pre-"woke" basic values? It's an internal clash that has been long in coming - and it's going to get nasty.
..... "Republicans are having the fight that they wanted four years ago but put off," said Ben Dworkin, director of the Rowan Institute for Public Policy and Citizenship Dworkin was referring to the last governor's race, when then-state Republican Party Chairman Douglas Steinhardt, a rifle-toting Warren County champion of Trump, jumped into the race in December 2020 to challenge the more establishment wing favorite, Jack Ciatarelli, the Somerset County lawmaker who served in the Assembly.
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But Steinhardt's bid was short-lived. he withdrew several weeks after the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol. Steinhardt, a lawyer, cited professional obligations, but in the immediate post-riot world, Trump's stock was at an all-time low. His departure left the right wing of the party to decide between two minor fridge candidates, Phil Rizzo, a pastor or from Hudson County, and Hersh Singh, a perennial aspirant form Atlantic County. Ciattarelli went on to win a narrow primary victory, despite having most of the GOP county organizations lined up behind him. But it was not the battle royal that a Ciattarelli-Steinhardt match-up portended. And that November, Ciattarelli's brand of Wobbling down the center lane - keeping an arms-length distance form Trump without totally disavowing him - appeared to be validate that November when he nearly toppled incumbent Democrat Governor Phil Murphy, losing by only 3 1/4 points. Ciatarelli is making his third bid this year. [2025] But this time, he's facing more competition in the establishment lane.
..... State Senator Jon Bramnick, a Union County lawyer who moonlights as a stand-up comedian, is running as the unabashed moderate and as a Never Trumper who believes Republicans will forever remain out of power and irrelevant in New Jersey unless the state party disavows Trumpism. He blivets that Trump is a toxic brand that sends centrist and unaffiliated or swing voters flocking into the arms of Democrats.
..... Bramnick has been pounding away at the Never Trump message and has been doing so since long before the November 5 [2024] election. And he is sticking to it despite Trump's toenail victory and stronger-than-evepected showing in New Jersey. He argues that Trump still lost despite one of the best political environments for him: running against a lackluster candidate without a cohesive message. Democratic turnout was way down. And at the end of the day, Trump gained only 41,000 votes over 2020, a 2% increase.
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"What I believe is that the success of our party is going to be a party of Ronald Reagan, George Bush, both Bushes, Dwight Eisenhower," Bramnick said. "Those are the type of Republicans who have historically beaten Democrats in this state. ... I think New Jersey voters are going to be looking for a traditional Republican."
And what about Bill Spadea, Trump's Hersey proxy?
..... Bill Spadea, a pro-Trump provocateur, is the polar opposite of a Regan-Bush establishment Republican. The morning host on a Trenton0-area radio station, Spadea has used his perch to promote anti-vaccine views and was a staunch critic of Murphy's pandemic lock-downs.
..... He also hews closely to the Trump playbook, railing against the "liberal nonsense" taught in schools and "Free-loading: undocumented immigrants and vows to make steep cuts to spending if elected.
..... Trump made a guest appearance on Spadea's morning show earlier this year. [2024] and like Trump, Spadea is not shy about attacking his rivals. Ciattarelli is first and foremost in his cross-hairs.
..... "Here's a news flash: Republicans are never going to take back our state if we nominate a 35-year career politician who;s already lost twice for governor," Spadea said in a video that accompanied his entry into the race in June. [2024]
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"If you're OK with more of the same, the other Republicans running for governor will give you exactly that," he added. And in a new ad, Spadea revives old anti-Trump comments and quotes Ciatarelli made earlier in Trump's rise, such as referring to him as a "charlatan." Ciatarelli, though endorsed Trump's reelection this year. [2024]
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Ciattarelli, for his part, is casting himself as a middle-ground candidate who can unite the party. And in doing so, he has taken unnamed swipes at both Spadea and Bramnick.
..... In his announcement speech earlier this year, [2024] he described himself as a candidate "who understands that campaigns are won by additions, not subtraction or division, a candidate who can unites our party, not one who calls moderate Republicans rhinos or Trump supporters crazies," he said, referring to Spadea. And then he continued describing himself as "a candidate who can convince Democrats to support our ideas, not one who suffers from a minority mentality surrenders to the Democratic Party bosses over hot dogs and hamburgers," referring to Bramnick's cordial relations with Democrats - including Murphy.
..... But one key backer of Spadea is George Gilmore, the chairman of the Republican Party in Ocean County, home to one out of every seven Republicans in New Jersey. In Ocean County, Trump expanded his margin of victory by eight percentage points over 2020. Although Ocean is a conservative redoubt in the southern part of the state, Gilmore believes Spadea's candidacy will resonate beyond. Trump's close loss in New Jersey also gives Gilmore confidence that Spadea can win a general election. He noted that Trump posted a strong finish despite not campaigning here or spending any money.
..... "It's time. People are fed up," he said
..... Email: Stile@northjersey.com.