Job growth is historic, so what does that mean?
By: Eli Amdur
Vantage Point
NorthJersey.com
..... It's the stuff on which American legend is built; vision, perseverance, devotion, energy and power. It's Lewis & Clark setting out to explore the vast unknown land that would become the United States. It's the transcontinental railroad,; Longfellow's The Village Blacksmith, Thomas Edison's laboratories; and the Civilian Conservation Corps.
.....
Now, you can add the American job market of 2021-2022 to that list. Not only has it put on a show of force never previously seen; it has sustained that performance for 20 consecutive months, as reported on September 2 [2022] by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
..... By now, you're seen all the news stations 20-second spots about high job creation in August [2022] of 315,000 and the 3.7% unemployment rate. Those are nice figures, but they don't tell the whole story. there were times in the 54 years I've been in the job market and in the 25 years I've been observing and commenting on it (not to mention coaching people through it) that those two numbers were good, but the job market was not. The market is a complex organism and must be understood as such.
..... To that end,
let's look at two other BLS reports: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and employment Situation. this will help dispel the fallacious argument - already underway on the part of negative commentators who have already pushed aside the mountains of positive data to point to one stat: the unemployment rate ticked up by 0.2% to 3.7%.
..... Of course, that's without understanding that the number of people in the civilian labor force surged by 786,000 (three-quarters of a million newly energized, optimistic job seekers), a number exceeding the 344,000 newly unemployed people by a significant margin 442,000. a parallel but rarely cited stat is that those not in the labor force declined by 613,000. In an aging population, that number tends to rise - unless, of course, there's a force opposing that. And there is. Actually, there are several.
..... The most tantalizing characteristic of our job market is open jobs. An open job is one that an employer would fill immediately if the right candidate shows up. Given the total unemployed population at 6.01 million, the number of open jobs - 11.2 million - is breathtaking. In other words, there are just about two open jobs for every job seekers. Compare that to 2010, when coming out of the Great Recession three were 6.5 seekers for every job.
..... Of late, that open jobs number has been hovering near or above 11 million for an astonishing 13 consecutive months. Further, the hires, voluntary quits, and turnover rates are all within a hair of their historic highs; and the layoffs rate is equally near its historic low.
..... What this all means is that the market is not just active, it is - in a word - hyperactive. It's the best time in history to be a job seeker (or changer) - without any doubt. In my humble opinion, the job market - all by itself - is what's keeping the overall economy form falling into a recession. By one measure, with tow consecutive quarters of GDP shrinkage, we're in one Practically, thought, many economists won't concede that formality - and the job market is why.
..... Now, if that's not enough for you, consider the potential fatal blows the job market has endured during its 20-month marathon: Covid; supply chain disruptions continual climate crisis events; the hearings of the January 6 committee' and more stock market agitations than are good for our digestive health. Add to that inflation; repeated and continuing interest rate hikes; the war in Ukraine; monkeypox; and intensifying mid-term shenanigans that surely will lead to full turbulence. If you want, you can research decades of data on mid-term effects. Or you can rely on my many years' observations.
..... with it all and through it all, what did the job market do? Buckle? collapse? Shrink? Implode? None of the above. Not even remotely close,as it turns out. The two biggest job creation years on record were 2021 and - by the time we get to December - 2022.
..... That's a bet.