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Key sign of hurricane activity detected

Region where cyclones often form is warning up

By: Doyle Rice
USA Today

..... Hurricanes need warm ocean water to form, and water temperatures in a key section of the Atlantic are really starting to warn up.
..... "One of the biggest changes I've observed in recent weeks is a considerable warming of he so-called Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic above the seasonal average," W{LG-TV hurricane expert Michael Lowry said in late jolly [2025] in a Substack post.
..... That's a big change from earlier this season.
..... "To open the hurricane season in June, [2025] waters across this bellwether part of he Atlantic where most of our strongest hurricanes get their start were running average to even below average," he said.
..... The main Development Region, located between the Caribbean and Africa, is a region in the Atlantic where many tropical cyclones - tropical storms and hurricanes -for,.
..... This area is key because it's where many tropical waves, which can develop into hurricanes, originally form.
..... The warm water in that key region is just one of the reasons hurricane forecasts are warning that hurricane season could soon heat up.

Warm water everywhere

..... It's not only the Main Development Region that's warm: Water across the Gulf of America (also known as Gulf of Mexico) and the Caribbean Sea are also above persistent high pressure has led to some notable warming of the shelf waters around Florida, as well as the nearby southwest Atlantic. Andy Hazelton, a hurricane scientist at the University of Miami, said August 1 [2025] on X. This included a 90-degree reading at a buoy near Virginia Key, Florida, near Miami.
..... "Water temperatures are pretty much warm enough everywhere in the tropical Atlantic to support hurricane formation," Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach told USA Today on July 31. [2025]
..... "The general consensus is that a temperature of 26.5 (degrees Celsius or 70 degrees Fahrenheit) is required to get a hurricane to form."
..... University of Miami tropical researcher Brian McNoldy confirmed this, saying in an email August 1 [2025] that "looking at a surface temperature, it's above the commonly-used 26 (degrees Celsius) isotherm everywhere of interest, so that ingredient is in place form Africa to the Caribbean to the Gulf."

Why no hurricanes?

..... So if ocean temperatures across the Atlantic are plenty toasty for hurricanes to form. what's preventing them form forming?
..... "One of the biggest disruptor of the Atlantic hurricane season so far has been unfavorable upper-level winds," Klotzbach said.
..... "Atlantic vertical wind shear is generally westerly.
..... We've had a lot of upper-level westerly winds over the past few weeks, increasing vertical wind shear across the Main Development Region."
..... Wind shear, a change in wind speed with height, is a hurricane killer, the National Weather Service said in an Online report.
..... "Strong upper level winds destroy the storms' structure by displacing the warm temperatures above the eye and limiting the vertical accent of air parcels.
.... Hurricanes will not form when the upper level winds are too strong."

Shear might be diminishing

..... However, the upper-level wind anomalies are likely to flip to easterly in early August, resulting in reduced vertical wind shear and creating conditions much more favorable for Atlantic hurricane activity, Klotzbach said.
..... He said this flip is associated with an eastward-moving Madden-Julian Oscillation, a global climate pattern that affects hurricane formation.
..... "Phases 1-3 of the Madden-Julian Oscillation are the ones that are most favorable for Atlantic hurricane activity, and we should be headed into these phases shortly per the latest long-range forecast from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts," he said.
...... "So, while things are quiet at the moment (and likely to remain quite for the next few days), there are signs that things will pick up in about 10 days,"
..... Hazelton agreed with this, noting on X: "Shear has already been coming down, and looks to drop even further as the Madden=Julian Oscillation moves over Africa.
..... The Week 2 look on ensemble is about as favorable as you will ever see upper winds in the basin this time of year.
..... "Still, shear is just one part of the equation, and this time of year, moisture and stability can hold things back and prevent development even with low shear. Those issues seen prevalent already this year. [2025]
..... "It will be interesting to see how August goes tropical cyclone-wise in the Atlantic."

Snapshot of the Atlantic

..... On August 2, [2025] hurricane experts eyed an area of low pressure near the coast of the Carolinas and said it was expected to have a 1-in-5 likelihood of becoming a cyclone over the span of a week.
..... The "area of disturbance" was forecast to from along a frontal system off of the southeastern coast of the United states, according to an August 2 [2025] tropics advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center.
..... The system was slowly moving east-northeastward with minimal development possible through the early part of the week.
..... The center was also tracking three tropical waves in the Caribbean that were not forecast to be a threat.
..... One was moving west near the Caribbean to northeaster Venezuela, another was moving west in the central Caribbean, and the other was moving west in the northwest Caribbean near Honduras.

..... Contributing: Anthony Robledo, USA Today; Jennifer Sangalang, Florida Today

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