La Nina pattern expected to form soon
By: Doyle Rice
USA Today
..... The long-promised La Nina climate pattern hasn't yet formed but is still expected to from within the next month or so, federal scientists announced Thursday. [10/10/2024]
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Specifically, the Climate Prediction Center said their is a 60% chance that La Nina conditions will emerge by the end of November. [2024] And it forms, it is expect3ed to persist through January-March 2025.
..... Climate scientist Michelle L'Heureux said the delayed onset could mean a weaker version of La Nina, if it does form. Another forecaster, AccuWeather's Jason Nicholls, agreed. "It still looks like a weak La Nina will form over the coming months and should be short lived," Nicholls said.
..... La Nina often creates weather patterns that increase hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin, which, if it forms, could still affect the tail end of this year's [2024] season. It also affects winter weather in the U.S. and around the world.
..... La Nina is a natural climate pattern marked by cooler-than-average seawater in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. When the water cools at least 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit below average for three straight months, a La Nina is declared.
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"While this may sound like a small change in temperature, it can cause significant change in the weather patterns around the globe," said AccuWeather meteorologist Brian Lada.
..... It is one of the main drivers of weather in the United States, especially during the late fall, winter and early spring. It's the opposite to the more well-known el Nino, which occurs when Pacific Ocean water is at least 0.9 degrees warmer than average for three months.
..... A typical La Nina winter in the U.S. brings cold and snow to the Northwest and unusually dry conditions to most of the Southern states, according to the Climate Prediction Center. The Southeast and mid-Atlantic also tend to see higher-than -average temperatures during a La Nina winter.
..... New England and the Upper Midwest into New York tend to see lower-than-average temperatures, the Weather Channel said.
..... Last week, [10/09/2024] Japan's weather bureau said that although there were no sings of El Nino or La Nina phenomena at this moment, characteristics of La Nina were approaching.
..... El Nino occurs, on average, every two to seven years. Its name means "the little boy" or "Christ child" in Spanish. El Nino originally was recognized by fishermen off the coast of South America in the 1600s with the appearance of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean around Christmas.
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The entire natural climate cycle is officially known as El Nino - Southern Oscillation, called ENSO by scientists. The cycle swings between warmer and cooler seawater in a region along the equator in the tropical Pacific.
..... When water temperatures are neither unusually warn nor cool, ""ESO-neutral" conditions are declared.
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That's what's happening now: "waters in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean near the equator have remained at near-average temperatures this month," [10/2024] Weather.com meteorologist Chris Dolce said Thursday. [10/10/2024]