La Nina expected to give way in coming months
By: Doyle Rice
USA today
..... Large-scale Pacific Ocean climate patterns are in the process of changing places, with La Nina likely to give way to El Nino over the next few months,, according to a February 12 [2026] forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration's Climate Prediction Center.
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'La Nina continued in January 2026, with below-average sea surface temperatures observed in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean," the Climate Prediction Center and in a February 12 [2026] Online report.
..... La Nina is part of a natural climate cycle officially known as El Nino-southern Oscillation, called ENSO by scientists.
..... The cycle swings between warner and cooler seawater in a region along the equator in the tropical Pacific. La Nina marked by cooler-than-average ocean water in the region, and it is one of the main drivers of weather in the United States. El Nino occurs when Pacific Ocean water is at least 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit warner than average for three months.
..... "La Nina continues to shape global and U.S. weather patterns and its impacts are expected to continue through at least the early spring seasons (February-April 2026)," Michelle L'Heureaux, the El Nino/La Nina forecast team lead at the Climate Prediction Center, said in a February 11 [2026] email.
..... After La Nina fades, a brief stretch of so-called ENSO-neutral conditions are likely, when neither La Nina nor El Nino is present. then, a full-fledged El Nino appears likely by fall, though predictions of when it might start vary by prediction center.
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Federal climate scientists are hesitant to issue specific weather forecasts until the el Nino actually forms. As for the probabilities of El Nino forming, "there is a 50% to 60% chance of El Nino for the longest time horizons," L'Heureaus said. "we are currently in a period of lower model accuracy called the spring prediction barrier and the forecast model that we examine are still showing a lot of different outcomes."
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"We need to be watchful for the possibility of el Nino, but COC did not issue an el Nino Watch this month [02/2026] because they are only when 'El Nino is favorable within six months' and the uncertainly is still too high within that time span," L'Heureaux said.
..... This question about the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season "is too early for us to answer,: Erica Grow Cei, a public affairs specialist and meteorologist with NOAA's National Weather Service, said via email. "ENSO is one of the largest factors of hurricane season, but only if either el Nino (warm phase) or La Nina (cool phase) are present."
..... "If ENSO Neutral is present during the hurricane season, other factors (such as the strength of the West African monsoon and overall wind shear in the Basin) will have a larger influence," she said.
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However, traditionally, "El Nino tends to limit tropical storm and hurricane activity in the western Atlantic and Caribbean, while increasing activity in the East and Central Pacific," Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster for NOAA, said in an email.