Lawmakers draw hard lines on bill

Competing Republican demands could derail Trump's mega-package

By: Riley Beggin
USA Today

WASHINGTON - In early April, [2025] House Speaker Mike Johnson huddled with a handful of conservative hardliners as the fate of President Donald Trump;s most important second-term bill hung in the balance.
..... The Republican lawmakers were worried the mega-package to overhaul government spending and cut taxes would balloon the federal deficit. Johnson needed their votes in order to kick off negotiators and, eventually deliver for the new president.
..... So, Johnson made the deficit hawks a promise: the Louisiana Republican would ensure there would be at least $1.5 trillion in spending cuts over 10 years in the package, or they could kick him out of the speakership.
..... fulfilling that promise will be no simple feat. As lawmakers draw hard lines over what they will support in the massive bill, it is becoming increasingly clear that not every player's ultimatums will be met. the question is: Who will be forced to compromise?
..... Each group has outsizes influence because of Republicans' narrow majorities in both chambers. As few as four lawmakers rebelling in the House or Senate could derail the final package, as no Democrats are expected to support the legislation.
..... Republican leaders say failure is not an option: If they don't pass something by the end of the year, [12/31/2025] Trump's 2017 tax cuts will expire, and renewing them is a major priority for the president. there's an additional incentive to get it done, as the bill would raise the debt ceiling and avoid default without requiring negotiations with Democrats - another top goal for the party.

Price tag problems

..... Tax cuts will be the heart of the Republicans' package. Trump wants to make his 2017 tax cuts permanent, which would cost an estimated $4.5 trillion over the next 10 years.
..... The president has also said it's priority to eliminate taxes o tips, overtime and Social Security benefits, all of which he touted on the campaign trail. following through on these would cost at least another $900 billion, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
..... GOP leaders say that extending the 2017 tax cuts will generate $2.5 trillion in growth (the nonpartisan Tax Foundation expects it will be closer to $710 billion), and more than 30 Republicans have said they won't support the full suite of tax priorities unless they can cut at least $2 trillion to make it deficit-neutral by Republicans' own estimates.
..... That's a big task. For context, the federal government is estimated to spend around $7 trillion total in fiscal year 2025. Nearly every significant piece of that pie, such as Medicare, Social Security and defense, would be politically sensitive to cut.
..... At the moment, it seems leadership intends to keep the promises of cutting as much as they spend: Johnson told House Republicans on May 8 [2025] that they should build a smaller, $4 trillion tax package in order to meet the goal of $1.5 trillion in spending cuts.
..... Trump has also endorsed raising taxes on the wealthiest Americans as a way to pay for his other priorities - an unpopular proposal among most congressional Republicans.

Medicaid in the cross-hairs

..... House Republicans have designated the lion's share of spending cuts to the energy and Commerce Committee, which oversees Medicaid and CHIP and has been instructed to cut $880 billion. Because Trump has repeatedly said Medicare is off the table for cuts, it is expected that most of that would have to come from Medicaid, which provides coverage to more than 70 million low-income Americans.
..... Lawmakers are seeking ways to meet that colossal figure without reducing benefits for eligible recipients.
..... some tweaks are easy for most Republicans to support: Implementing work requirements. creaking down on non-citizens enrolled, and regular eligibility reviews.
..... But the savings form those changes would be modest. Most of the solutions that would be needed to close the gap are no-gos for a group of moderate Republicans, such as a change to the federal match rate to states or per-capita caps on Medicaid funding because they would likely trigger reductions in Medicaid spending by states. Johnson said recently that the change to the federal match rate is off the table.
..... A dozen House Republicans have said they cannot accept cuts to vulnerable populations," said Representative Don Bacon of Nebraska, has said he won't stomach more than $500 billion in cuts to the program. At least five Republicans senators have also raised concerns.

SALT showdown

..... When Republicans approve the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017 during Trump's first term, they set a cap of federal deductions for state and local taxes paid, known as SALT, that largely benefit people who live in higher-tax states. Making some residents of those mostly Democratic States pay more in taxes helped reduce the cost of Trump's signature tax law.
..... Now, a small group of Republicans who represent districts in those states - primarily New York, California and New Jersey - want those caps lifted, and there are enough of them to kill the reconciliation bill if they don't get what they want.
..... However, it;s unclear how much they want the cap to be raised.
..... Representative Young Kim, R-California, has proposed a $62,000 cap (as opposed to the current, $10,000 ine0. Representative Mike Lawler, R-New York, introduce a bill to raise the cap to $100,000 for single filers and $200,000 for married couples. some, such as Representative Nicole Malliotakis, R-New York have proposed income based caps. Representative Nick LaLota R-New York, said the core group of five members have discussed privately what they're willing to accept, but they won't release it publicly yet.
..... All three of these factions will be under immense pressure from their leadership and from Trump to compromise and approve the package, even if they don't get what they want.
..... Congressional leaders and the White House both want to have the bill to the president's desk by July 4. [2025]

..... Contributing: Zac Anderson, USA Today

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