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Path out of shutdown uncertain

Pain, paychecks could end Congress' stalemate

By: Zachary Schermele
USA Today

WASHINGTON - There's no clear way out of the seemingly intractable government shutdown, now in its third week. The Senate ah struck down the same budget bills more than half a dozen times. Another vote on a Republican funding measure failed on October 14. [2025]
..... But at some point, a number of variables could stat to change the equation, possibly crating a pat for enough votes to reopen the government.
..... Here are key things to watch for - sings of whether the shutdown ends soon, or, as House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-Louisiana, has wared, becomes "one of the longest in American history."

Obamacare negotiations

..... The main sticking point is a party-line disagreement over how to address the expiration of health insurance subsidies at the end of the year. [2025] If Congress does nothing, millions of people will see there Affordable Care Act premiums rise.
..... Rank-and-file senators have begun bipartisan back-channeling over what an Obamacare deal could look like in exchange for Democrats' voters to reopen the government. It's not clear how those talks have progressed.
..... House Republicans introduced bill to extend the subsidies for a year, though Democrats say that;s not long enough. The disagreemnt among GOP lawmakers to intervene was underscored by Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, leadership after the shutdown started."

Support from Schumer

..... One of the most important figures to watch is Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-New York. Republicans likely need Schumer if they want a handful of Senate Democrats to overcome the 60-vote threshold.
..... In March, [2025]they 74-year-old got a small group of Democrats to vote with him to pass a GOP finding bill, averting the first threat of a shutdown in Trump 2.0. That decisions prompted widespread frustration among progressives and even more moderate wings of the party. this time around, Schumer is playing hardball, and mostly held his caucus in line with him.
..... Republicans say Schumer's fighting spirit is due to speculation that Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-New York, could run against him in a primary, potentially pushing him to retire.
..... Schumer has characterized his stance as a necessary effort to push the GOP to do what's best for the American people, and for there health care in particular.

Moderate, retiring Senate Dems

..... But there are wild cards who have less reason to do what Schumer said.
..... A handful of Senate Democrats - including Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, Gary Peters of Michigan and Tuna Smith of Minnesota are retiring. So is Illinois' Dick Durbin, though he and Schumer are longtime friends and likely wouldn't break publicly.
..... "We all need to be working together," Shaheen, a key figure in nascent bipartisan health car talks, on Fox News.
..... Others aren't leaving but then to be more moderate. Senators such as New Hampshire's Maggie Hassan voted for the March GOP duding bill. However, they largely say curbing the harm of lapsing Obamacare subsidies is important enough to risk the consequences of the shutdown.
..... "We need to reopen the government, and we also need to address this looming health care crisis," Hassan said in a video.

The Trump factor

..... In March, [2025] the last time the country flirted with a shutdown, Democrats were not on the same page. this time, Republicans are the ones struggling to stay unified.
..... President Donald Trump has on occasion taken different positions from congressional leaders. He insisted that troops must be paid during the shutdown, and even rerouted money to do so, while his counterparts on Capitol Hill said they wouldn't pass a standalone military pay bill. At least in passing, Trump has signaled more of an openness to negotiating a health care agreement with Democrats than Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-South Dakota.
..... Republicans in Congress almost always follow Trump's lead. But he's unpredictable. It's always possible the president could suddenly decided to pressure GOP lawmakers to compromise and end the shutdown.

Federal layoffs

..... Trump has used the shutdown as an opportunity to reroute money to programs and people he likes - while eliminating the ones he doesn't. On the heels of deep cuts to the federal workforce earlier this year, [2025] the White House has laid off more employees, initially tallied at more than 4,000. The Office of Management and Budget, which executed the layoffs, isn't letting up, writing on social media, "Pay the troops. pay law enforcement, continue the (layoffs), and wait."
..... Talking to reporters October 14, [2025] the prudent doubled down. "We're being able to do things baht we were unable to do before,: he said. "We're closing up programs that are Democrat programs that we wanted to close up."
..... Democrats' resolve could change as times goes on and Americans start to feel the effects of reduced government programs.

Military paychecks

..... As a deadline for military troop pay approaches on October 15, [2025] the president announced he would divert Pentagon funds to ensure service members got their checks.
..... However, there are legal questions about whether a president has the authority to do that.
..... Though Johnson hasn't committed to bringing a standalone military pay bill up for a vote, he praised the president for finding a workaround.
..... "If the Democrats want to go to court and challenge troops being paid, bring it," he told reporters October 14. [2025]

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