SAVE Act's partisan impact unclear
Trump insists voting bill would aid Republicans
By: Josh Meyer
USA Today
WASHINGTON - As President Donald Trump has pushed congressional Republicans to pass stiff new voter registration requirements, he has argued that the legislation will befit their party in the upcoming election. [11/2026]
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"It will guarantee the midterms," trump told Republican lawmakers gathered MArch 9 [2026] at his Doral, Florida, golf resort. he urged them to make it their Number 1 priority. "If you don't get it, big trouble, my opinion.
..... The fact that Republicans have been so gung-ho for the bill, known informally as the SAVE Act, suggest they do believe their party would benefit in a year when forecasters project they may lose control of the House of Representatives.
..... Meanwhile, Democrats uniformly oppose the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act, and voting rights and civil rights advocates worry that it would disenfranchise many voters who lack access to proof of citizenship.
..... But would the SAVE Act acutely give Republicans a partisan advantage? The evident is unclear:
..... The bill would require Americans to show documentary proof of citizenship - such as a birth certificate, passport or naturalization documents - to register to vote in federal elections. Provisions under consideration could also greatly restrict, or eliminate mail-in voting and would cerate a national requirement to show a government-issued photo ID to vote, which is currently only needed in some states.
..... Democrats overwhelmingly say they support election security and voter ID measures to make sure non-citizens and other ineligible people can't register or vote, while nothing that such cases are extremely rare. But they say the bill's proof of citizenship requirements for registration would block many eligible voters.
..... "Under the SAVE Act, you cannot sue your driver's license to register to vote," Democratic Senator Tammy Duckworht of Illinois said in a March 19 [2026] post on X. "Republicans want you to buy a passport instead. If you can afford one. This is a modern-day poll tax."
..... One of the most widely cited findings in the debate comes form research by the Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement at the University of Maryland, which has been researching the issue for many years.
..... In a March 2025 report - called "Who Lacks Documentary Proof of Citizenship?" - the center took three in-depth surveys, including a nationally representative sample of the adult U.S. citizen population.
..... "Many Americans of all political identities lack DPOC, or documentary proof of citizenship, the study said. "More research is needed to understand how, if at all, the SAVE Act would impact electoral outcomes."
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The national survey found that those who lacked easy access to proof of citizenship were disproportionately younger and pole of color, two demographic groups that tend to vote more for Democrats than Republicans.
..... But the center also took two state-level surveys, in George and Texas, and found that the "result suggest that the political impact may very state by state."
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In Texas survey, the center said, more Republicans than Democrats reported not currently having citizenship documentation at all or not being able to easily access it. In its Georgia study, the authors wrote, "we found roughly even numbers of Democrats and Republicans were impacted."
Millions lack required docs
..... In recent weeks, Trump said he won't sign bills until the Senate follows the House's lead and passes the SAVE Act.
..... The GOP's push to do so recently has faced stiff opposition, not only from Democrats but also from some Republicans who are unwilling to eliminate the Senate's filibuster and its de facto super majority requirements to pass it, as Trump demands.
..... If it does pass, of millions of Americans could be affected. The Brennan Center for Justice at New York University found in a 2024 study that more than 21 million American citizens did not have easy access to proof of citizenship documents the bill would require.
..... And at least 3.8 million people didn't possess any of those documents at all, often because they were lost, destroyed or stolen, according to the Brennan Center report, which was done with the Maryland Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement and two other voting rights groups. VoteRiders and Public Wise.
..... The Brennan Center report also uncovered some evidence of racial disparity, with 8% of self-identified White American citizens lacking ready access to citizenship documents but nearly 11% of American of color in a similar position.
..... Analysts say the proposed law could impact voters of both parties in different ways nationally and state-by-state given their existing election polices and protocols.
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Married women who changed their names, the elderly, young individuals, Hispanic citizens and low-income Americans will have the most trouble registering to vote under the SAVE Act, according to a January 2025 analysis by the nonpartisan Institute for Responsive Government.
..... In a recent analysis, The Washington Post found that rural voters -a group Trump won by a 30-point margin in 2024 - are less likely to have passports. Adding to that unpredictability, the Post said, was the fact that Republicans attract more male, working-class and first-time voters, "who tend to have lower education levels and less access to documentation."
..... Older Americans across party lines are likely to face some of the most significant documentation hurdles, including mismatched or missing records, according to the March 17 [2026] SAVE American Act Guide: by the nonpartisan AARP, formerly known as the American Association of Retired Persons.
..... Those who have moved often over the span of their lives or have moved out of their homes and into nursing or assisted living facilities, may have an especially tough time gathering the required proof of eligibility, such as a birth certificate.
..... That could prove significant, the AARP said in another report from October 2024, because older adults are a major force in deciding U.S. elections. Voters 65 and older have had the highest turnout of any age group since 1988, with 72% casting ballots in 2020, the AARP guide said.