Strong El Nino could be coming this year
By: Doyle Rice
USA Today
..... Get ready - the world's influential natural weather feature is coming in for a landing.
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"The El Nino cometh," climate scientist Zeke Hausfather said recently on X.
..... An El Nino is forecast to develop later in 2026 along the equator in the eastern Pacific Ocean, and some sings show ti will be a strong one, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center said March 12. [2026]
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The developing El Nino may affect the number of hurricanes expected to form during the 2026 hurricane season, which officially begins on June 1. It may also bring strong heat waves, droughts and flooding aorta the world.
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In addition, el Nino often causes some of the hottest years ever recored such as the record-breaking worldwide average temperature in 2024.
..... If El Nino develops as expected, it "would push up our estimate for 2026 global temperatures (through it;s still unlikely to surpass 2024 as the warmest year), and make 2027 very likely to be the warmest year on record," Hausfather said on X.
..... The current La Nina climate pattern is fading away and will eventually be replaced by the strong El Nino pattern according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.
..... The likelihood of an el Neno forming in the late summer is estimated by the CPC 62%. It's expected to "persist through at least the end of 2026," hte CPC said in the March 12 report, which officially declared an "El Nino watch."
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"Even through model forecasts are relatively less accurate this time of year," the report said, "the increasing odds of El Nino are supported by the large amount of heat in the subsurface ocean and the expected weakening of the low-level trade winds.
..... "If El Nino forms, the potential strengths remains very uncertain, with a 1-in-3 chance that it would be 'strong' during October-December 2026."
..... El Nino is a natural climate pattern in which surface sea water temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean are warner than average. Its name means the Little Boy or Christ child in Spanish. El Nino originally was recognized by fishermen off the coast of south America in the 1600s with the appearance of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean around Christmas. The entire natural climate cycle is officially known as el Nino - southern Oscillation, called ENSO by scientists. The cycle swings between warmer and cooler seawater in a region along the equator in the tropical Pacific. La Nina is marked by cooler-than-average ocean water in the region.
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The ENSO cycle is the primary factor government scientists consider when announcing their winter weather forecast because it mainly influences our weather in the colder months. (El Nino doesn't have a strong summer climate impact for most of the country, NOAA said.)
..... During an el Nino winter, the southern third of the United States typically experiences wetter-than-average conditions, while the northern third sees enhanced changes of below-normal precipitation, according to the CPC.
..... As for temperatures, "El Nino winters are typically warmer across the continental U.S., especially from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes," Matthew Rosencrenas, NOAA's lead hurricane seasonal forecaster, said in an email. "the warmth can extend farther down the West Coast and into the Southeast, but those signs are much less certain."
..... El Nino can also have a huge impact on the severity of the hurricane season in both the Atlantic and the Pacific.
..... "Typically, el Nino leads to more rising air over the tropical Pacific, which then leads to stronger upper-level wind shear and sinking air across the tropical Atlantic," associated scientist Andy Hazelton of the University of Miami said in an email.
..... "This usually reduces the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic, especially in the Caribbean and Gulf."