The job market keeps marching forward, despite naysayers

By: Eli Amdur
Vantage Point
NorthJersey.com
08/13/2023

..... Keep your guard up.
..... You're liable to see an increase in negative talk about the American job market, especially now that the July [2023] jobs report was released by the bureau of Labor Statistics, and especially as we're getting into political silly season. It seems that when the job market is bad, the party out of office blames it on the one that's in. The problem is, when the market is good - or great, as it is now - the party out of office calls it bad and then launches the same blame game.
..... Don't listen to a word of it.
..... Let's get thee points out of the way. because they're distracting and irrelevant.

* The job market created "only" 187,000 jobs in July.

* That's the second straight month with fewer than 200,000

* We're averaging "only" 223,000 monthly this year [2023] (as opposed to 400K+ in 2022 and 500K+ in 2021).

..... Naysayers always look for things to negate, whether warranted or not, and I'll bet they'll be going after these three, for starters. What they'll be calling bad is by any standards, good. Simple as that.
..... That's no way to assess this market, as it's much more complex than that.
..... In fact, by every measure, the American job market is continuing to perform well we just need to know how to look at it. No job market anywhere in the world or at any time in history can sustain a growth level like this for 12 months, let along 30, as ours did. But what that astronomical growth of the last three years did was to create the conditions for a sustained, steady market and for another growth spurt that will like in another growth spurt that will kick in when the Infrastructure Plan, CHIPS Act and ongoing initiatives to recapture manufacturing jobs gain momentum.
..... Here's what we want to see. Our civilian labor force grew by 3.11 million over the last 12 months, currently sitting at 167.1 million - almost exactly half our total population, which it traditionally is, and that means that to keep up with population growth, (births minus deaths plus immigration) we would need to add 1.45 million jobs per year, or 120,000 per month. As shown, we blew that number out of the water.
..... Further, over the last 12 months, 2.99 million Americans found employment and whenever you see growth of the civilian labor force and the employed being so close together, - almost identical, in fact, at 3.11 and 2.99 - you're looking at a condition of extraordinary equity. Basically, on the macro level, if you dedicated to get into the job market, you found a job. If you didn't call me.
..... Among the more commonly discussed numbers, the unemployed rate fell - once again. We're now at 3.5%. Historically, that's consider full employment. And we're been holding steady between 3.4% and 3.7% for 17 consecutive months.
..... But is this success shared? Well, you tell me: Health care added 63K jobs, social assistance 24K, financial activities 19K, wholesale trade 18K, other services 20K, construction 19K, leisure and hospitality 17K, and all other title or no change. In essence, while it wasn't a banner month for all, it wasn't a bad month for any. That's shared success.
..... And while all this was going on, wages rose strongly again: another 0.4% last month [07/2023] and a rate of 4.4% over last year. [2022] in other words and to sum it up, more people are looking for work, finding it, and making more money while they're at it. Oh, and yes, inflation is continuing to fall - it's now down to 3.0%, one of the five lowest among developed nations - and we've been in a situation for the past three months where income is, once again, rising faster than inflation.
..... No job market in the universe can keep up the incredible numbers of the last 30 months; unlimited growth like that is impossible. But think of it like a Boeing 787 taking off and rising until it gets to its cruising altitude of 37,000 feet or so.
..... That ascent was what we did for two and a half years; now we've leveled off - at a phenomenal hight.
.... Just what we want. More and more commentators are getting comfortable with the now frequently used expressions that the American job market is the envy of the world.
..... They should. It is.

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