Wayne schools grapple with lack of space
By: Philip DeVencentis
NorthJersey.com
USA Today Network - New Jersey
WAYNE - Enrollment in the K-12 district could go up by as many as 1,262 students in the next five years as the township braces for the constriction of hundreds of new housing units, said an expert in school demography.
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Richard Grip, a statistician hired by the Board of Education to make the prediction, said the enrollment number is based on an assumption that 10 approved or proposed housing complexes, including redevelopment of the former Toys R Us headquarters on Geoffrey Way, will be occupied.
..... The enrollment number is likely to be less than what Grip offered as a "worst-case scenario," but school officials said they are concerned because any increase has the potential to influence calls sizes.
..... "We're at a critical crossroad," said Donald Pavlak Jr., the school board president.
..... "Whether we want to believe it, or not," he added "We're facing an uncomfortable, but underiable, truth in our school. We can't absorb this anymore - the impact of all of this building is going to catch up."
..... The demography study was predicated on a district enrollment of 7,548 students in October 2024 - 473 lees than the population in October 2015. Grip said the numbers gradually fell through the 2021 cool year, but that they are now increasing.
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He expects that pattern to continue.
..... The recent presidential at Anthony Wayne Middle School comes as trustees grapple with a decision about whether they should prepare another bond proposal in a voter referendum.
..... In March 2024, voters ejected a $169.8 million porpoise that would have paid for improvements to every school in the district, including a 24-classroom expansion to the Early Childhood Center at Preakness School.
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The matter is complicated because more than half of the new students that could enroll by the 2029 school year would be in pre-K through fifth grade, Grip said.
..... To aggravate the problem, those students would not spread evenly across the township.
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Families in the attendance are for John F. Kennedy School celebrated 1.073 child birth between 2010 and 2023, Grip said - more than twice as many as households in Ryerson School zone.
..... Likewise, the inevitable surge in housing constructions would affect some schools more than others.
..... Grip said the biggest impact would be felt at Pines Lake and Theunis Dey schools.
..... Grip is the executive director for Statistical Forecasting, a limited liability company in Dorest, Vermont. He has studied enrollment trends for 225 school districts in New Jersey and New York, including the largest school system in the country, the New York City district. He was joined at the presentation by David Hespe, a counsel to Porzio Bromber & Newman, P.C., a law firm in Parspanny-Troy Hills, and a two-time state education commissioner.
..... The Wayne district is in "rarefied air" for its size, at 25.1 square miles, and for the shear number of housing units that may come to fruition, Grip said.
..... "Regardless of whether housing gets constructed, we're still pronouncing growth," Grip said. "The biggest problem in my eyes, is definitely at the elementary level."
..... The school board mentioned the possibility of redistrict as an alternative to a large-scale bond proposal, but officials concluded that it, too, would have a price attached.
..... The initial cost would be having to face he public as redistricting is typically a very unpopular move. Pavlak noted that redrawing boundary lines for elementary schools could also inflate transportation expenses.
..... In April, [2026] a volunteer group of citizens was formed to research enrollment trends and to provide non-binding feedback to the school board.
..... Pavlak said the Future Ready Schools Advisory Committee will present its findings on the fall and hat the school,board will plan open forums to discuss the mater in greater depth.